Enernoc will report earnings next week. If it represents the 'inflection point' quarter that we suspect, things could get interesting because the short interest is reported to be 17% of Float.
What would happen if : the quarter's results illuminate the underlying business model and the open questions are answered (see below). What if the market 'gets it' that the company was investing for the opportunity they could clearly see in their internal annuity value spreadsheets -- not being the spendaholics they have been accused of. What if renewal revenue run rates provide a lot of confidence that the company will exit 2009 profitable for the year with revenues nearing a 200M run rate?
The recent relative strength of the stock might indicate that the shorts are getting nervous....
While we have no specific information, we do know that this will be the first full quarter of PJM revenues, and we know what PJM revenues/MW yeild (53K per MW/Yr) for the Emergency Program, added by Spinning Reserve revenues and other bennies. We know that COMV has created some confusion in the market about PJM revenues (their model seems to have been based on the old PJM plan). So the fact that the market might be confused is understandable.
Clarity should come next week. There are other risks to this developing company that could come into play, but we still think that Q3 will the inflection point and with each successive quarter the risks to the company decline.
This company could be in that sweet spot when growth companies put start hitting their stride. Don't give your stock to the shorts if the stock spikes, let this one run through this business cycle.
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